By Sarah Moore, USA TODAY NETWORK / Reno Gazette Journal
As it feels more and more like autumn in Nevada, people may be turning their attention to the new year, including what 2027 could mean for their budgets.
Nevadans who receive Social Security should expect slightly larger payments in 2027, according to the latest forecast by The Senior Citizens League and AARP. These nonpartisan groups that track the government program released new Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) predictions for recipients ahead of next month’s announcement by the Social Security Administration.
The COLA—a yearly benefit change to Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments—aims to counteract inflation so recipients don’t lose their buying power.
The Senior Citizens League forecasts recipients could anticipate a 3.5% increase to Social Security checks in 2027. If the current forecast holds, the average Social Security check would increase by about $68, down slightly from previous forecasts.
Meanwhile, AARP released a slightly higher forecast, saying there could be a 3.6% increase to Social Security in 2027, which would boost checks by about $75.
This forecast was released about a month ahead of the official COLA announcement slated for Wednesday, Oct. 14. In the meantime, forecasters will look out for, “short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down,” said Senior Citizens League executive director Shannon Benton.
“No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run,” Benton said. “The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently. The CPI-W captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn’t represent the average senior’s budget.”
Over the last 12 months, the consumer price index for all urban consumers increased 3.4%, according to US Bureau of Labor and Statistics’ Sept. 11 inflation update.
“The index for gasoline rose 3.9% in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase. The index for energy increased 2.1% over the month. The shelter index rose 0.3% in August after rising 0.1% in July. The index for food increased 0.1% over the month, as the index for food away from home increased 0.3%,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
“The continued growth in consumer prices is largely due to tariffs and the spike in energy prices stemming from the conflict in Iran, effects of which are ‘rippling through the economy,’” Distinguished Visiting Fellow with the National Academy of Social Insurance Indivar Dutta-Gupta said in AARP’s Sept. 11 forecast.
What is the newest forecast for the 2027 Cost-of-living Adjustment?
The 2027 COLA forecast has fallen slightly to 3.5% since the previous forecast, according to The Senior Citizens League’s Sept. 11 update.
If that forecast holds, the average Social Security check for retired workers would increase by $67.90, from $1,940 to $2,007. The forecast is 1.0 percentage point higher than the COLA set into place in 2025. This forecast is also lower than the group’s August prediction, which called for a 3.6% increase.
On Sept. 11, the AARP projected a 3.6% increase.
The COLA predictions are based on the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rates, and the National Unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
On Aug. 12, The Senior Citizens League predicted a 3.6% COLA increase for 2027 Social Security and SSI payments, which would boost monthly checks by $69.75.
When will the official 2027 Cost-of-living Adjustment be announced?
The official COLA increase for Social Security payments in 2027 will be announced on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026.
How is the Cost-of-living Adjustment calculated?
The COLA is calculated with a formula, per the Social Security Act. The adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) calculated monthly by the US Bureau Labor of Statistics—CPI-W is the average change over time in the prices paid by urban wage earners and clerical workers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, per the US BLS.
What was the Cost-of-living Adjustment for 2026?
At the beginning of 2026, recipients received a 2.8% COLA for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments, according to the SSA’s COLA Fact Sheet and the American Association of Retired Persons, increasing payments by about $56 per month.
Carly Sauvageau, a Nevada Connect reporter with the USA Today Network, contributed to this report.
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
