Breaking down the 2024 election results in Nevada

While Donald Trump won the presidency and appears to be on track to winning Nevada, his success isn’t translating as much for down-ballot Republicans.

Former President Donald Trump on Thursday officialy secured enough votes to be awarded Nevada’s six electoral votes, according to Decision Desk HQ and The Nevada Independent, further adding to his presidential win over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Trump is leading Harris by 50,922 votes — a margin of about 3.8 percentage points — with about 95 percent of precincts reporting, and the presidential race was called in Trump’s favor by outlets like the Associated Press on Wednesday. In flipping Nevada, he becomes the first Republican to win the state since former President George Bush in 2004, and with the electoral win, Trump is set to become just the second president ever to serve in nonconsecutive terms. 

“This will truly be the golden age of America,” Trump said at a speech declaring victory on Wednesday. “This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.”

While Trump claimed  those voting methods like early and mail-in voting were the reason 2020 was “rigged” against him — with no evidence — Republicans this year built an early voting turnout edge that reached more than 46,000 by the end of the early voting period, ultimately helping Trump to cruise to his first electoral victory in Nevada since jumping into the political foray in 2015. 

2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton remains the only woman to lead a major political party’s ticket and carry the state of Nevada. At 78, Trump will become the oldest President-elect in history to take the oath of office when he is inaugurated in January. 

Trump, once inaugurated, will also become the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve in nonconsecutive terms. Cleveland was in office 1885-1889 and served again from 1893-1897. 

But Trump has vowed that his second term will be drastically different from his first, notably with plans to deport up to 13 million undocumented immigrants in what he’s billed as the largest proposed mass deportation in US history. Trump has also promised to impose a flat global tariff ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports and a separate tariff of 60% on goods brought in from China — a move that economists and tax experts have told The Nevadan would effectively act as a national sales tax that could cost families on average $2,700 a year. 

Formally announcing her concession on Wednesday afternoon, Harris said while the future may seem unsure right now, it’s up to all Americans to continue fighting for the ideals that make the US a land of freedom and opportunity for everyone. 

“While I concede this election I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign,” Harris said. “A fight for fairness and the dignity of all people, a fight for the ideals at the heart of our nation — ideals that reflect America at our best. That is a fight I will never give up.” 

Polls had shown the race as razor-thin both here in Nevada and nationally heading into Election Day. But all of the seven swing states deemed most important by both campaigns were won by Trump. But Trump’s success hasn’t translated as much down-ballot, where the results are more of a mixed bag. 

NV Dems hang onto crucial congressional seats, Senate race too close to call

Despite Trump trending toward victory in Nevada, there are many races in Nevada still too close to call. But the emerging trend appears to be Trump overperforming other Republicans down the ballot, and nonpartisan voters are the key distinction. 

Both Decision Desk HQ and The Nevada Independent also called the race for Nevada’s US Senate seat, where incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen was beating Republican challenger Sam Brown by 12,699 votes as of results posted Thursday morning. The two outlets also called races in favor of all of Nevada’s incumbent US House representatives, Democrats Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford, along with Republican Mark Amodei.

Titus, a former state lawmaker who has served in the House since 2013, was leading Republican challenger Mark Robertson by 21,590 votes, or 7 percentage points; Lee was beating conservative policy analyst and opinion writer Drew Johnson by 8,358, or 2.4 points; and Horsford was up by 26,116, or 8.4 points, over former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee.

Nevada nonpartisans turned out in greater numbers than both Democrats and Republicans on Election Day, and, according to results released thus far, are breaking with Trump at a higher rate than down-ballot Republicans. Democrats will need each of their Nevada US House incumbents to win to keep on the path toward a House majority, but even that remains uncertain at the moment.

Nonpartisans make up roughly one-third of Nevada’s voting population, and this year have broken decisively for Trump, especially in traditional Democratic strongholds like Clark and Washoe counties. 

 Independents were a key piece to Nevada US Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s 2022 victory, when she bested former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt by less than 8,000 votes. 

While Democrats suffered some down-ballot losses, they didn’t take a total shellacking Tuesday night, either: a ballot question asking voters to amend the Nevada Constitution to add abortion protections easily passed, having received about 63% of the vote. That measure will require a second passage in 2026 before it can go into effect.

And while Republicans appeared to have netted one seat each in the Nevada Assembly and state Senate, Democrats appear poised to retain control of both chambers of the state legislature. 

How did Trump do it? 

The outcome of this year’s election likely leaves Harris supporters and Nevada Democrats thinking to themselves, “What went wrong?” We won’t have a complete answer for weeks, but there’s enough voting data out now to see how the race ultimately broke Trump’ way. 

An exit poll from NBC published Wednesday examining 10 key swing states, including Nevada, and found that men in those states preferred Trump by a margin of 10 percentage points (54 to 44), an improvement over Trump’s 53-45 margin from 2020. Latino/Hispanic men provided the bulk of this shift, going from Biden +23 to Trump +10 this year.

In Nevada this year, however, men — which made up 52% of the voters sampled — preferred Trump to Harris by 15 percentage points, while Harris only held an eight-point lead among women. The candidates were tied among Hispanic/Latino Nevadans, drawing 47% support each, but Hispanic and Latino men overwhelmingly supported Trump by 22 percentage points. 

Trump first carved his path to the White House in 2016 by activating so-called low-propensity voters, defined by political scientists as those who vote infrequently or are not likely to turn out in every election. 

And it was that group — particularly among young, working-class men — that appears to have turned out in droves again in Nevada and across the country this year. So much so that the high turnout (which in the pre-Trump era generally benefited Democrats) among this group proved to be insurmountable for Harris to overcome, despite her support from women and voters in urban areas and college-educated suburbs. 

Turnout not high enough among women, young voters  

The Harris campaign as late as Monday said it was comfortable with Harris’ electoral chances after seeing signs that turnout among voters under 30, particularly college students and suburban women — groups that were vital to Democratic wins in 2018, 2020, and 2022. But, like the young men who showed out for Biden in 2020, Harris was unable to keep those margins in her head-to-head matchup against Trump. 

Biden in 2020 was +30 among voters 18-29, and +18 among those aged 30-44, according to a CNN exit poll of Nevada, but the NBC exit poll cited earlier had Harris’ margin in those same groups at +13 and +5, respectively. Harris finished in Nevada +10 among women from all groups, the same margin won by Biden in ‘20, but Trump gained six percentage points among white women without a college degree. 

Another remarkable difference, when comparing the 2020 CNN exit poll and this year’s NBC survey, was Trump’s remarkable gains among lower-income voters. 

Biden beat Trump in every income bracket except those who made between $100,000 and $200,000, but Harris underperformed in all groups making under $100,000 per year.